Football Betting

Stenhouse Jr. ready to get Nationwide title defense underway

Autoracing Betting Lines

02/22/2012 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Series: NASCAR Nationwide. Date: Saturday, February 25. Race: DRIVE4COPD 300. Site: Daytona International Speedway. Track: 2.5-mile tri-oval. Start time: 1:15 p.m. (et). Laps: 120. Miles: 300. 2011 Winner: Tony Stewart. Television: ESPN. Radio: Motor Racing Network (MRN)/SIRIUS NASCAR Satellite.

The 2012 Nationwide Series season gets underway on Saturday with the 300-miler at Daytona International Speedway.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. also begins his campaign for a second straight championship. If Stenhouse can defend his title this year, he would join Sam Ard (1983-84), Larry Pearson (1986-87), Randy LaJoie (1996-97), Dale Earnhardt Jr. (1998-99) and Martin Truex Jr. (2004-05) with back-to-back Nationwide titles.

In a NASCAR media poll released last week, Stenhouse was selected as the preseason favorite to win the Nationwide title.

"We're ready for another championship," he said. "Our Nationwide Series season starts this week, and I think we have worked on a few things that we needed to work on during the offseason and want to start out strong this year."

Stenhouse has made four Nationwide starts at Daytona, posting two top-10 finishes.

While Stenhouse remains in the No. 6 car, his Roush Fenway Racing teammate, Trevor Bayne, moves over to the No. 60 this season. Carl Edwards had been the driver of the 60, but Edwards has no plans to compete in Nationwide this year, as he focuses more on his Sprint Cup Series efforts.

Coming off his championship season in the Camping World Truck Series, Austin Dillon has graduated to Nationwide, driving the No. 3 car for Richard Childress Racing. Danny Stockman will serve as Dillon's crew chief after guiding him to the truck title last year.

"Everybody is looking forward to getting to Daytona and to get the first race behind us," Dillon said. "Once we get the first race behind us, we have three races in a row, so that's something new for me. In the NASCAR Camping World Truck Series, you get a month off, but in the Nationwide Series, we are going racing. It will be fun. We're prepared and ready to go."

Dillon has already made 11 Nationwide starts, with his best finish of third coming last July at Nashville.

Danica Patrick is set to compete in the full 33-race Nationwide schedule this year. Patrick, driving the No. 7 car for JR Motorsports, has three Nationwide starts at Daytona. Her finishes there are 10th, 14th and 35th.

"I've raced (at Daytona) more than any other track, and I did that on purpose, because I want to do well in the big races, and Daytona is a big race," she said. "The more experience I have at a place like this, the better off I am."

Patrick's boss in Sprint Cup, Tony Stewart, will attempt to win the Nationwide season opener at Daytona for the fifth consecutive year. Stewart also won the February race at this track in 2005 and '06. If he takes the checkered flag for this event, he will tie Dale Earnhardt Sr.'s record for most Nationwide wins at Daytona with seven.

"That's a pretty cool feeling to know we've closed in on something (Earnhardt's) done at Daytona," Stewart said. "To me, that was his playground. You just watched him play with the guys here. He was the best at that place. To even be remotely close to him in the record books, in anything at Daytona, is very humbling."

Stewart is one of nine Sprint Cup regulars competing in this race. Dale Earnhardt Jr. also is entered. Earnhardt Jr. has six wins at Daytona as well, most recently in July 2010.

Fifty teams are on the preliminary entry list for the DRIVE4COPD 300.


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MySportsbook.com: New College Football Clock Rules Examined

Coaches and bettors alike are desperate to make sense of the new time-keeping rules on the NCAA gridiron. One of the big stories to come out of the Ohio State-Texas clash last weekend was Texas coach Mack Brown's criticism of the NCAA's new clock rules that are intended to shorten the duration of college football games, therefore affecting college football betting.

"They scored with six minutes left and the game was over before we had a chance to do anything," Brown told ESPN.com. "I really hope whoever made these changes will go back and look them over."

Sure, it might be sour grapes; the Buckeyes thoroughly trounced the defending national champion Longhorns 24-7. However, Brown isn't alone in giving the changes their due thought. Bettors are also wondering about them, albeit for a completely different reason. Most experts agree that the changes will result in games being shortened by anywhere from 10 to 20 plays. The obvious consequence is lower scores, with more time rolling off the clock during changes of possession. (The Ohio State-Texas game flew well under the total of 52.)

According to research at the online sportsbook MySportsbook.com, more than 18 plays a game disappeared last weekend into thin air. That's a 10-percent reduction. In 2005, a typical game had 168.58 plays. For 2007 already, it's down to 150.26.

As a result, teams combined to gain an average of about 100 fewer yards a game last weekend versus the 2005 openers. Scoring was also down by about 4.5 points (attention Las Vegas sports lines).

Of course, oddsmakers were able to adjust to the changes before the season started. Proof of that came as the over went a balanced 8-9 at My Sportsbook on Saturday.

Other angles to consider:A shorter game should theoretically result in shorter lines. Whereas Team A might have been a 14-point favorite in a 168-play game (last year), if there are 10 percent less snaps in 2007, the line should also be reduced by 10 percent (to 13 or 12.5). Of course, this is an over-simplification of the matter, but something to keep in mind.
Less possessions means a better chance the game will be decided by three or seven points. For example, what might have been a 20-10 final score in 2005 may end at

17-10 in 2007. Granted, a 24-17 game last year might end at 21-17 these days, but the former - a three- or seven-point advantage being preserved as opposed to created - is the most likely scenario.

*UPDATE* - Sept. 25, 2007

New Clock Rules Boon for online bookmakers

By adjusting the time-keeping rules to shorten the duration of college football games, the NCAA hoped to make its product more enjoyable for the fans. While the NCAA's success in this regard is still up for debate, bookmakers couldn't be happier with the results.

"We are seeing a massive jump in college football betting," noted the MySportsbook.com management team. "With all the early Saturday games (12 a.m. ET) ending before the second wave begins (3:30 p.m. ET) - something that didn't always happen before the changes - bettors are now able to re-invest their winnings from the morning session in the afternoon games."

While not all bettors will choose to roll over their winnings, it doesn't take much for an impact to be seen on the bottom line. "Not all of the millions of dollars in morning payouts get re-bet. In fact, it's probably only 10 to 20 percent," noted the sportsbook management team. "Still, the increased football betting lines window will create a ton of growth for us over the course of the season."

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FOOTBALL BETTING : Crabtree's base deal: six years, $32 million

Football Betting

In the wake of the news that the 49ers have signed receiver Michael Crabtree after an extended holdout, there has been not a hint of the dollars to be paid to Crabtree.

And since this means that his agent hasn't leaked the numbers, it means that his agent feels no specific motivation to do so.

Possibly because his agent isn't all that thrilled to have his name on the deal.

So the numbers will come from sources other than Crabtree's agent. And we've gotten our mitts into them.

Per a league source, Crabtree has signed a six-year, $32 million contract. (The total includes guaranteed money, base salaries, and the one-time incentive based on achieving minimum playing time.)

The deal also includes $17 million in guaranteed money.

As reported elsewhere, the deal can void to five years based on performance triggers, wiping out a final year base salary of $4 million. But they won't be easily reached.

The source tells us that, in his first four seasons (including 2009), Crabtree must either qualify for two Pro Bowls, or he must qualify for one Pro Bowl in one year and he must participate in 80 percent of the offensive snaps in a separate year in which the team makes the playoffs.

In other words, if in 2010 he qualifies for the Pro Bowl and the team makes the playoffs and he participates in 80 percent of the snaps, he'll still need to make it to the Pro Bowl or achieve the 80-percent/playoffs in another season.

Since the chances of Crabtree making the Pro Bowl or participating in 80 percent of the offensive snaps this year is roughly zero percent, he'll have three years to get it done.

And it won't be easy. Frankly, he'll be hard pressed to make it to one Pro Bowl in three years with the likes of Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Steve Smith, the other Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks, DeSean Jackson, Johnny Knox, Percy Harvin, Greg Jennings, Roddy White, T.J. Houshmandzadeh in the same conference for sportsbook betting.

So, by all appearances, it's a six-year deal. And at $17 million in guaranteed money, the per-year guarantee is a tepid $2.83 million per year.

There's another problem with the deal -- it has no mid-tier incentive package. Instead, the additional $8 million that Crabtree can earn (pushing the max value to six years, $40 million) requires the kind of unrealistic, mega-star performances that no rookie is likely to ever achieve.

So while the contract paid to Packers defensive tackle B.J. Raji covers five years and pays $22.5 million, he has the ability (if he's a solid player) to make up the difference between his base deal and Crabtree's five-year, $28 million haul via the mid-tier incentive package in Raji's deal.

And unless Crabtree meets the performance thresholds necessary to void the sixth year, he'll be stuck under contract for another year at a base salary of only $4 million.

There's one other area of concern with the deal. Crabtree, per the source, received no option bonus. Instead, he has significant money tied to a fairly new device known as a "discretionary salary advance," which unlike an opition bonus is subject to forfeiture if Crabtree decides in a year or two that he wants to hold out for a better deal. (We're also told that the 49ers have included language that would make certain escalators subject to forfeiture, too.)

Meanwhile, the deal falls well short of the mark for which Crabtree and agent Eugene Parker were aiming -- the five-year, $38.25 million contract paid by the Raiders to receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey, the seventh overall pick in the draft.

Even if Crabtree successfully voids the final year, he'll make more than $2 million per year less on average than Heyward-Bey.

Thus, as we explained earlier in the day, this is a deal that Crabtree could have done in July, which would have given him a much better chance of making a contribution to the 49ers during his rookie year.

So while the final outcome can be described as win-win, the broader view suggests that it's really a lose-lose situation.

NFL Betting Lines

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